Any Vegas bookie will appear to lay odds to break even. But the idea is take as many suckers for as much cash as possible. A sports book is a for profit business strategy. Sure, every once in a while somebody comes up lucky on the long odds, you've got to believe that more than one fool lays down a c-note every year on say, the Chicago Cubs winning the world series. You would be hard pressed to find any sort of bookmaker laying odds on skateboarding however. Skateboarding doesn't offer the guaranteed "line" the bookies are looking for. Obviously you can break down a list of riders and assume that certain people will finish in the top ten spots, and of those ten, the top six might be moderately easy to sort, with moderately being the key operative word. Skateboarding is built on variables. Predictability is exactly what we defy every time we roll.

In terms of a contest situation, the variables are countless. Consider these, for starters: Injury, judging snafus, people waking up too late for their heat, last-minute entries, and dark horses coming out of nowhere to shake up the old guard. There are a lot of other principles at work here as well. As a skateboarder, you know when you're on, and you know when you're off. Part of what makes these skaters the best in the world is their uncanny ability to bring it consistently, to show up with their full game on any given day of the week. Everybody has bad days, but when you consider how things shook out last year, (a few judging hitches aside) you get a qualified sense of the consistency and power of the top finishers. And, you can trust that every last rider is going to push the limits again.

I'm not laying any odds, nor am I taking any wagers. To do so would be both foolish as well as insane. What I am doing is taking a good look at the pre-qualifier roster first, and trying to determine who will excel and advance to the inferno to come. The following is a brief list of names with a justification based on what I personally know, you may disagree, and rightly so. Come Saturday, all bets are off, know what I mean? I'll have the results of the the qualifier on Thursday night, so you can see if any of the synapses in my brain are firing properly.

Masters' Division Qualifier: 8 skaters will advance to Saturday's elimination heats:
I'm looking for the following riders to qualify, in no specific order: Ben Schroeder, Micke Alba, Glen Charnoski, Jesse Martinez, Brewce Martin, Remy Stratton, Steve Steadham, and Henry Gutierrez. As a wild card I'll add Eric Tuma Britton.

Reasoning: When Ben Schroeder is on, he is REALLY on, he won the RVCA mini ramp contest beating out guys like Mark Appleyard. Big Ben has a legitimate shot. Malba was an original Upland Pipeline local, and he's back with a vengeance. Charnoski was taking down most of the masters' 1st place finishes all summer long, he has a good chance to advance. The Mess, Jesse Martinez, comes hard every session and I'm looking for Jesse to battle his way through to Saturday. The chaos that is CIA operative and Skatopia overlord Brewce Martin will no doubt make a solid and fearless charge towards the main event, while taking more runs than anyone. Remy Stratton has been seen abusing the Combi lately, and looks to be a serious threat. Steadham, well Steve comes from big concrete, and his recent sessions at the Combi and Encinitas have been overwhelmingly good, If Steve dials in his lines, he should advance with no trouble. Henry Gutierrez is a fork-branded VA Beach original, coming from big vert flatwall territory, but HG's skills carry over nicely into the line-rich Combi. Tuma is one of my favorite guys to skate with, he brings a good vibe along with spontaneity and cat-like quickness, and his attack is smoother than the best Irish whiskey money can buy. Don't be surprised if Tuma glides in, possibly padless and wearing a pork pie hat.

Pro Division Qualifier: 10 Skaters will advance to Saturday's elimination heats:
This one is tough to call, so many amazing skaters and so many different styles and approaches, I wouldn't lay bets on my predictions. These are the names I'm looking to see on Saturday's list, again in no particular order: Darin Cookiehead Jenkins, Sergie Ventura, Chris Cudlipp, Mason Huggins, Nolan Johnson, Ryan Johnson, Jake Piasecki, Steve Reeves, Tyler Mumma, and Darren Navarette. I'll cheat and add 2 wild cards: Josh Skreech Sandoval, and Matt Dove(If he enters, I hope he does).

Cookiehead is a no-brainer, his air game is huge, he throws the 5 with confidence and he has the lines to power on through. Similarly, Sergie Ventura goes huge and throws 5's as well, if Sergie can put some lines together and bring the lip game, he can go all the way to the final jam. Chris Cudlipp is a monster. Fast feet, huge snap, and zero fear make Cudlipp a hole shot for sure. Mason Huggins handily grabbed a 1st in one leg of last year's Oregon Trifecta, and his mastery of big concrete will give him an edge on Thursday. One of the guys I'm definitely hoping to see advance is young Nolan Johnson. People may scoff at his sponsors, but no one can front on his skating abilities, and his mix of old and new school moves makes him my dark horse pick for '07. Ryan Johnson(unrelated) has long been revered as a backyard pool and big terrain destroyer. RJ is bulletproof and powerful, willing to take things well beyond any sane limits. Jake Piasecki is back after nearly a year of recovery from a severe injury, received in this very same pool, while training for last year's event. Jake is out for revenge and payback and he has the arsenal to back it up. Steve Reeves, the man-child, will be laying down the Slayer-fueled adrenaline attack, padless, helmetless and completely out of his mind. Skrotes!!! Tyler Mumma is quickly becoming one of the upper echelon of bowlriders. This young upstart is cementing his reputation as a stylish and powerful threat. Crail reverts and Miller flips? Yes, and yes. The Vertical Vampire, Darren Navarette, has been seen destroying the Combi in recent days, punishing the new coping and laying down some evil lines. It's anybody's guess as to whether or not Navs will even bother to enter, but his name is on the list and he will leave a trail of ex-sanguinated corpses in his wake if he does, believe it. Skreech is... Skreech. Zero fear, possibly not a whole lot of critical thought about consequences, and uniquely ridiculous moves make Skreech a one of a kind threat. The kid is always hurt and yet he just keeps skating. Will someone please get this guy a medical insurance policy? Matt Dove would be my spot-on pick to excel in the qualifier. Matt has skills few others possess, and in spite of his disdain for competition settings, I could see him mixing up tech and power assets to advance. Even if he doesn't enter, it will be good to see him out there.

So that's it, a relatively solid guess as to who will advance to the main event. I could be way off, but I'd like to think that a few of my picks will be on point. Come Thursday night, you can compare the true results against my stabs at futures on the qualifiers. Whether I'm right or wrong is of no great consequence, what really matters here is the skating, and the guys who battle their way into the main event will have earned it legitimately.