Brief Overview:
Small scale SE/ESE swell and NE/ENE windswell mix will continue for Thursday and Friday. SE swell from Tropical Storm Isaac moves in over the weekend mixing with continued NE/ENE windswell.
THURSDAY 23rd
Swell/Surf: Minor 1-2’+ (knee-thigh+) SE/ESE swell mix with inconsistent sets in the waist high range. Local NE/ENE wind chop will also mix in through the day.
Wind: NE 9-13kts with higher gusts possible during the afternoon.
FRIDAY 24th
Swell/Surf: Minor 1-2’+ (knee-thigh+) SE/ESE swell mix with inconsistent sets in the waist high range. Local NE/ENE wind chop will also mix in through the day.
Wind: NE 9-13kts with higher gusts possible during the afternoon.
SATURDAY 25th
Swell/Surf: Rising 2-3' (thigh-waist high) SE swell and NE/ENE windswell mix. The surf may start off slow first thing in the morning as the swell begins to edge in and the tide bottoms out. Bigger sets are expected during the second half of the day as more swell fills in. Stay tuned as we watch this swell propagate towards Virginia Beach on the buoys in the western Atlantic the next 24-48hrs to confirm size and arrival time.
Wind: ENE 10-15kts.
SUNDAY 26th
Swell/Surf: Expect 3-4' (waist-chest high) SE swell and NE/ENE windswell mix. Potential exists for a few jetty-enhanced bigger sets around the more favorable tides.
Wind: E/ENE 9-14kts, potentially easing some during the second half of the day.
Swell/Surf Outlook:
We are expecting minor SE/ESE swell and NE/ENE wind chop mix in the 1-2’+ (knee-thigh+) range for Thursday and Friday with inconsistent bigger sets around the waist high range, especially around the more favorable tides. We will also be closely monitoring the frontal boundary located offshore for any enhancement to the local NE/ENE windswell on Thursday and Friday.
The surf outlook for this weekend is looking more promising — see the attached Virginia 7 day forecast dashboard.
The tropical wave we discussed earlier this week has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Isaac with maximum winds of 40kts. TS Isaac is impacting the Leeward Islands this afternoon and will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. Winds associated with Tropical Storm Isaac will send a pulse of SE swell to Virginia Beach that is expected to fill in through the day on Saturday and continue on Sunday. We will be closely monitoring the western Atlantic buoy network over the next 24-48hrs to confirm both the size and timing of this SE swell. See the attached figure for the location and forecast track of Tropical Storm Isaac.
Model guidance suggests we will also see a wave of low pressure develop along the old frontal boundary just offshore on Friday/Saturday that will push into the NW Atlantic on Sunday. This system will add a shorter period (5-7 second) NE/ENE windswell component to the mix on Saturday and Sunday. This additional windswell component should help both with the overall consistency of the surf and also the shape by helping to break up some of the longer SE swell lines that will show on Saturday and Sunday.
Wind/Weather Outlook:
An old frontal boundary, the same one we have been dealing with the past several days, is draped just offshore of the VA coastline and extends into the western Atlantic. We continue to see weak waves of low pressure ride along this boundary and this will continue to be the case during the second half of the week and over the weekend.
As we have discussed, the strength and timing of these waves is difficult to predict and can impact a very localized area. At this point it looks like we will see a weak wave slide past Virginia Beach on Thursday before pushing away on Friday. This will result in continued NE winds for the second half of the week.
Model guidance suggests we will see a stronger wave of low pressure ride along the front on Friday and into the weekend. This will result in continued onshore flow on Saturday and into Sunday. We may see winds try to relax during the second half of the day on Sunday as this feature pushes away.
Next Update: Friday afternoon, August 24th.